Doubting Finian Cunningham's scenario

Ich bitte um Entschuldigung, aber die Texte von Finian Cunningham und meine Entgegnung (3200 : 2200) sind so viel gelesen und kommentiert worden, dass ich es nur als fair ansah, den Text ins Englische zu übersetzen. Ich hatte ja extra einen separaten Blogg für schwedische und englische Texte geschaffen (einarsprachenvaria), aber den behandle ich so stiefmütterlich, dass er nicht allzu viele Leser auf sich zieht. Am meisten wird er in den USA und Kanada gelesen. Also machte ich mal eine Ausnahme. Noch eine gute Nachricht: dieser Blogg hat ja die 2.15 Millionen hits überschritten und nun habe ich aber entdeckt (so doof kann man wirklich sein), dass auf Google + noch einmal diese Seite in einem anderen Format - sehr ansprechend  - liegt, die in einem halben Jahr über 3 Millionen hits hinter sich hat. Vow, bin richtig stolz.

Einar Schlereth

4. April 2014

It's convincing that Cunningham's scenario is an American dream. Imagine it happens conforming the American wishes: Europeans and Russians destroy each other in a nice little 'limited' nuclear war thereby annihilating themselves as competitors of the hegemon. China would be left alone and would then be deleted by a US-nuclear first strike.

I conceive this as delusional. Well as a fact our masters here in Europe are too dumb to get what's the game around them. The whole world is amused about the incredible stupidity of the European politicians. But Russia especially under the leadership of Putin is definitely not that dumb.

For sure the Americans would give a damn whether a million Europeans including their best friends, die English would bite the dust even if some of their 'ownes' would follow them. Their 'Fuck Europe' or 'those backward Europeans' are no slips but their normal vernacular. The Europeans and the rest of the world are shit for them. But unfortunately it wouldn't be only a few Americans.

The USA has still 22 military bases (see graphic) and 56000 troops in Germany. Together with their puppy allies 80000.  On top of it there are some dozen bases more in Europe including the biggest one in Kosovo, Bondsteel with 5000 troops. Wikipedia gives 76 000 as the total of the US-troops in Europe which certainly is a cooked number. Then there is the baggage train. It means that the real total are some hundred thousand people. Even for the USA a little too much to cast them in the dustbin.
And now the Europeans encouraged by the Americans start the war. Maybe even the Germans with some sort of a new broadcast station Gleiwitz because they don't know what that means. First bombing the Russian positions maybe with the little tactical nuclear weapons. The Russians would respond with a volley. But nobody wouldn't get nowhere. Then what? Boots on the ground? Whom? The big mouths from the Maidan? So they would resort to 'real' nuclear weapons (not the Germans because they don't have any). And do you believe the Russians would meticulously spare the US bases when bombed with US nuclear bombs?

Who could believe that? The Russians certainly would do the only right thing to massively respond on the first strike and take out all the important bases in all of Europe starting with the US headquarter of the EUCOM forces at Francfort/M. And even better - take out the supply lines too leading back to the US. And then naturally the US would reply.

World War III would be a fact. And all the while the Chinese who have a strong military alliance with Russia would be looking at the spectacle waiting until Russia is
finished? Forgetting also that the Chinese have the greatest strategic interest  in the enormous natural resources in Sibiria where they have already made gigantic investments.

All that would also be lost with the defeat of Russia. So China would wait until the US hegonom has gulped the Russian bear and then starting to gulp the Chinese dragon. Sounds quite silly.

For Russia and China only one thing can be considered: either togother or nothing. All the rest is nonsense. The Europeans can't fight a war against Russia alone. They got enough thrashing trying it. So we are on square ONE again. They could do it only behind the broad back of the Americans. But they will guard against leaning their noses out of the window too  far.

Look at their history. They NEVER ever attacked an enemy stronger as themselves. They were always brave against weaker ones, much weaker countries. Preferably those with bows and arrows or no weapons at all. Like in the hundreds of wars against the Indians, against the Mexicans, Hawaii, the Philippines, Cuba. The first great war against Sovjet Russia 1918 they fought with two armies in the East and the West together with nearly two dozen allies. And they were beaten by those poor ragged revolutionary armies. And once again when they fought against the Chinese at the end of WW II and in Korea who where militarily outgunned they were also defeated.

So there will be no limited small war nor a big war. Nevertheless you can't exclude for certain that f. i. those perfect idiots in Tel Aviv will start a war against Iran which will lead to an uncontrolled chain reaction and draw the whole world in it.

Conclusion: The Americans will continue their wearing down tactics. From within and from the outside with sabotage, subversion, with proxies and terrorists to bring Russia down. But this technique will wear off  because the opponents will see through their ruses and will be better prepared to it. And second because China and Russia are getting more and more friends and allies in the world. The more the BRICS countries unite and that bloc by force of gravitation will draw more countries in their orbit and the more they disconnect from the dollar and create their own reserve currencies and develop their own internal and external markets the bigger the danger that the West by way of a change will be sanctioned.

And then WE will look complete fools.